Recently I read according to some economic observers including Calculated Risk here is what the rest of 2010 could have in store for us.
GDP – Real GDP growth will slow in the 2nd half of ’10, some expect it will be at an “anemic” level. Note that the first half real GDP growth was reported as just over 3% annualized (before revisions).
Federal Stimulus – There will be less Federal stimulus spending in the 2nd half
Inventory – Inventory correction will end and by default Industrial Production will accelerate. However, Phil Izzo of WSJ believes there will be a downward revision in the later GDP reports
Personal Savings – An elevated personal savings rate will result in slower growth consumer spending. June’s personal savings rate was reported at 6.4% and is expected to rise as high as 8% as households restore their balance sheets. This means that spending grows slower than income, causing a drag on the economy.
Housing – There could be another downturn in housing resulting in lower prices and less residential investment.
Global Economy – There will be an economic slowdown in Europe and China.
State and Local Governments – The US will experience sizeable cutbacks at the state and local level; State and local governments will be looking for a “bailout” package. The Senate just approved a $26B appropriation and the house approval and Presidential signature is anticipated shortly.
Employment – Employment in the private will continue to struggle even though it has increased in 8 of the last 9 months. State and local employment will see cut.
Private Business Sector – Continued tight credit combined with economic and political uncertainty will continue to reflect in job number that thus the greater economy.
My question for you is, what do you think?
And thank you for making me Your Orange County Real Estate Connection.
Michael Caruso, Broker ABR ABRM CRB CRS GREEN GRI
2007 President, Orange County Association of Realtors (949) 753-7900